ADP报告 —— 洞察商业中的零工劳动力（五）

什么样的工作最稳定？

看情况

What Kind of Work Is Most Stable? It Depends.

许多人认为传统的W-2全职是最安全的工作类型。这些工作被认为是更长期和稳定的，有由雇主提供的福利保障，如医疗保险和退休计划，这些福利很难通过其他方式获得。相比之下，零工有时被认为是不稳定和没有安全感的，让员工受制于公司和经济变化。存在一个问题，这些波动是否会导致零工及其家庭的财务不安全。

为了探究这一问题，我们对数据进行了深入研究，以了解这两类员工的经历。*我们的目的是发现这两类员工的工作中存在多少程度的稳定性（或不稳定性）及其类型。当工作是可预测的（能持续并定期创造报酬），就被认为是稳定的。

***调查结果从招聘机构的角度反映了薪资数据。由于一个独立承包商可能为多个公司工作，个人的月薪可能高于公司的平均水平。这就是为什么我们决定分别比较连续工作了12个月的W-2员工和1099-MISC零工，以及一年中工作少于12个月的W-2员工和1099-MISC零工。

Many people view traditional, full-time W-2 work as the most secure type of employment. These jobs are considered to be more long-term and stable, supported by a safety net of employer-sponsored benefits such as health-care and retirement plans that are difficult to obtain in other ways. In contrast, gig work is sometimes believed to be volatile and insecure, putting a worker at the mercy of companies and subtle economic shifts. There is a question of whether this volatility results in financial insecurity for gig workers and their families.

In order to explore this question, we delved deeply into the data to understand the experiences of both types of workers.* Our intention was to discover how much and what kind of stability (or instability) is inherent in each type of work. Work is considered to be stable when it is predictable, expected to continue and provides a regular compensation stream.

* The findings reflect payroll data from the perspective of the hiring organization. As it is possible for a contractor to work for multiple companies, an individual's monthly pay may be higher than is reflected in company averages. This is why we decided to compare W-2 and 1099-MISC workers who worked 12 consecutive months against each other, and we did the same for those working less than 12 months in the year.

>> 工作时间长度和薪酬水平

一个人在同家一公司一年中工作的时长是稳定性的关键指标。如前所述，大多数1099-MISC零工的工资是按他们的工作即时结算的，所以可以通过工资来估算他们的工作时长。

从1800多万名员工的样本中，我们发现近四分之一的传统W-2员工——被认为是劳动力中最稳定的员工——并没有连续12个月为同一家公司工作。事实上，W-2员工在12个月内平均工作10.9个月，略高于1099-MISC零工9.4个月的平均工作时长。在不考虑工作小时数和月份数的情况下，1099-MISC零工的平均月收入为6260美元，W-2员工的平均月收入为5930美元，相差仅330美元。(见图6)。

但这并不能说明全部情况。并不是每个员工都按平均月数工作。因此，我们将员工分为两类——一年里工作了12个月的员工和在任何一个12个月期间在同一家公司工作少于12个月的员工。

表6：不同类型员工平均工作月数及平均月收入

Duration of Work and Pay Levels

The amount of time a person works for the same organization over the course of one year is a key indicator of stability. As stated previously, most 1099-MISC workers are paid at around the time that they work, so payments are a good proxy for the timeframe of their work. This is validated by the regularity of the payments through the entire time period of the dataset.

From a sample of more than 18 million workers, we find that nearly a quarter of traditional W-2 employees — considered to be the most stable in the workforce — do not work for the same company for 12 consecutive months. In fact, W-2 employees work an average of 10.9 months in a 12-month period, just slightly higher than the average of 1099-MISC workers at 9.4 months. Regardless of hours and months worked, 1099-MISC workers earn an average monthly income of $6,260, and W-2 workers earn $5,930, a difference of only $330. (See Chart 6.)

But this does not tell the complete story. Not every worker works the average number of months. Therefore, we divide the workers into two categories — workers who work all 12 months of a year and those who work fewer than 12 months for the same company in any 12-month period.

>> 连续工作12个月的员工

在所有1099-MISC零工中，超过一半的人表现得像传统W-2员工，全年为同一家公司工作，然而，几乎有四分之一的W-2员工没有工作满整12个月。(见表7)。

我们分析了平均月收入，在不考虑工作时间的情况下。在同一家公司连续工作至少12个月的员工中，1099-MISC零工的月薪比传统员工高出约470美元。这个比较没有考虑雇主给W-2员工提供的福利。

表7：连续工作12个月的员工

Workers Working for 12 Consecutive Months

More than half of all 1099-MISC contractors seem to behave like traditional W-2 employees, working all year for the same company, whereas, almost one-fourth of the W-2 workers do not work for the entire 12 months. (See Chart 7.)

Average monthly earnings were analyzed, irrespective of the number of hours of work. Among all those working for the same company for at least 12 consecutive months, 1099-MISC workers earn about $470 per month more than traditional workers. This comparison does not consider traditional W-2 employer-provided benefits.

>> 工作时间少于12个月的工人

仔细来看那些没有为同一家公司连续工作12个月的W-2员工和1099-MISC零工，他们一年中工作的时间是多少？尽管在这一类别中有更多的1099-MISC零工，但我们发现两组之间的趋势非常相似，如表8所示。在这两组中，工作时间超过9个月的人所占比例要大得多。

表8：12个月中按工作月数划分的员工分布

Workers Working Fewer Than 12 Months

Looking closer at W-2 workers and 1099-MISC contractors who do not work 12 consecutive months for the same company, how much do they work over the course of a year? Although there are more 1099-MISC workers In this category, we found remarkably similar trends between the two groups, as seen in Chart 8. For both groups, there is a significantly larger percentage working more than nine months.

>> 月收入的比较

如前所述，1099-MISC零工和W-2员工的平均月收入差约为330美元。然而，由于工作时间少于6个月的W-2员工人数众多，也计算在其中，影响了结果。一项更细致的分析显示，工作时间少于6个月的1099-MISC零工平均月收入，比工作时间少于6个月的短期W-2员工的平均月收入高1430美元。（见图9）。工作12个月或更长时间的1099-MISC零工和一年里工作不到6个月的短期W-2员工的平均月收入差异更大；前者比后者平均多挣4460美元。薪酬差异明显突出了这两种类型的零工之间的区别 —— 1099-MISC零工运用其专业技能，从事更复杂的项目任务，相比之下，短期W-2员工的技能较少，从而执行完全不同类型的任务。

如果受教育程度是技能水平和薪酬的代表，那么这一发现与研究结果一致，即1099-MISC零工是受教育程度最高的群体，其次是传统的W-2员工。短期W-2员工最不太可能拥有高中以上学历。此外，对雇主的采访显示，能尽快到岗的零工还享有额外奖励。那些从事1099-MISC零工工作的人往往比传统的和短期W-2员工能更快到岗。（见图10）。

表10：工作需求提前多久通知

A Comparison of Monthly Earnings

As previously noted, the average monthly earnings difference between 1099-MISC and W-2 workers is about $330. However, this comparison is clouded by the large population of W-2 employees who work fewer than six months and are included In the calculation. A closer analysis shows that a 1099-MISC contractor working fewer than six months makes $1,430 more per month than a W-2 employee working fewer than six months. (See Chart 9.) The Income difference is even more dramatic among 1099-MISC contractors working 12 months or more; they make $4,460 more per month than a W-2 employee working fewer than six months. This clearly highlights the difference between these two types of gig workers — 1099-MISC workers with specialized skills, performing more sophisticated tasks, compared with short-term W-2 workers with little skills, engaged in completely different kinds of tasks.

If education is a proxy for skill level and pay, this finding is consistent with research showing 1099-MISC contractors are the most highly educated segment, followed by traditional W-2 employees. Short-term W-2 employees are least likely to have education beyond a high school diploma. Additionally, interviews with employers indicate that a premium is attached to the pay of gig workers available with little notice. Those who perform 1099-MISC work tend to have less notice of work than traditional and short-term W-2 workers. (See Chart 10.)

>> 可预测的工作可以是短期的

如前所述，员工工作的时间和收入是衡量稳定性的两个指标。另一个稳定性的因素是，短期工作是否是员工和/或公司自己意向的。调查结果表明，短期雇佣往往从一开始就打算这样做。调查还发现，传统员工通常没有事先确定的雇佣结束日期，另一方面，仅有56%的短期W-2员工和51%的1099-MISC零工有同样想法。另有25%的1099-MISC零工表示，虽然他们的合同有终止日期，但可以选择续签 ——这对W-2短期员工来说并不常见。大多数零工在过去的一年里没有被传统工作解雇过，即使他们一年中工作不到六个月，也不认为自己是“失业状态”。(见表11)。例如，至少85%的零工表示，他们在过去一年中没有经历失业。

表11：自我报告过去一年的就业状态

Predictable Work Can Be Short-Term

As discussed, the amount of time employees work and how much income they make are two measures of stability. Another factor of stability is whether short-term work is intentional on the part of the worker and/or the company. Survey results indicate that short-term employment is often intended to be so from the start. The survey found that, while traditional employees generally have no predetermined end date to employment, only 56% of short-term W-2 workers and 51% of 1099-MISC contractors say the same. An additional 25% of 1099-MISC workers report having a contract with an end date, but with the option to renew — something that is not common for short-term W-2 workers. Most gig workers have not been fired from a traditional job in the past year and don't consider themselves to be "unemployed," even if they worked fewer than six months in the year. (See Chart 11.) For example, at least 85% of gig workers say they have not experienced job loss in the past year.

在短期W-2员工中，67%的人说他们在过去一年中没有失业超过几周，尽管至少有半年没有工作过。似乎很多打零工的人都认为自己的工作时间不会超过一年，所以选择这样的工作是他们自己的意向。

调查结果还显示，尽管工作时间很短或者是零星的，但三分之一的零工认为自己的工作可以维持五年甚至更长时间。(见表12)。这与那些接受采访的高管看法一致，他们说人们通常在这个职位上工作多年（一年中工作少于12个月）。我们调查的例子中包括一位短期的W-2员工，他在每年的假期为零售商店工作，以及一名1099-MISC零工，他为旅行社提供网站维护。

表12：假设你有选择，同时假设你的表现、雇主或客户的财务状况或经济状况没有变化，你预计能在这份工作上干多久？

And, among short-term W-2 workers, 67% say they were not unemployed for more than a few weeks in the past year, despite not having worked for at least half the year. It appears many gig workers expect their jobs will last less than a year, and they are intentionally making the choice to work this way.

Despite short-term or sporadic work, survey results also show that one-third of all gig workers think their jobs can last five years or longer. (See Chart 12.) This is consistent with executives interviewed who say people often work in this capacity (fewer than 12 months) for many years. Examples from our survey include a short-term W-2 employee who works for a retail store every year during the holidays and a 1099-MISC contractor who provides website support for a travel agency.